FROM BAD TO WORSE

The season that wasn’t:

                With less than a month to go until the start of spring training it’s time to look back at the past season and into the future of this Blue Jays team that looks to straighten the ship after a poor 2018 season.  The Blue Jays have lived and died with the long ball for too long there batting average as a team ranks 10th in the AL. The game has changed from just getting guys being able to hit homeruns you need guys to produce in every situation and the Jays lack that. With an overall record of 73-89 and a division record of 30-46 you can really see where the Blue Jays struggled. You have to take advantage of home games which visibly judging by their below .500 record (40-41) they did not use home field to their advantage, however attendance  seemed to be an issue for their home games as they averaged 27000+ down from 2017, when they averaged 29000+ a drop of 27% shows that fans were prepared for a lacklustre team in 2018. With things hopefully turning around in 2019 the Jays are looking to raise that average back to the 29000+ area.

                After a promising run of back to back playoff appearances the Toronto Blue Jays looked like they were poised to take another run at things in 2018 even bringing in veteran help in the outfield with Curtis Granderson. However injuries and poor play early in the season lead to the season that was below the norm for the Jays these past few years. You saw the end of an era come with many players of that post-season team play their final games in the blue and white at some point last season with big names like Martin, Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Osuana, Pearce, Bautista and Estrada, the Jays’ went into full rebuild mode.  You can’t help but wonder what could’ve been if the stars were able to stay healthy last year. Could they have pushed towards another playoff run? Possibly but keeping up with the high paying Red Sox and the overly talented Astros would have been tough. Your likely not going to win many playoff games via the long ball only and with an abysmal .244 team average and an ERA north of 4.50 it’s tough for many to look at the 2018 season as anything other than disappointing. With a gifted group of rising stars hopeful and striving towards making roster spots on the 2019 team things are starting to look promising again for the Jays.

                As Bad as things looked in 2018 there were a few bright spots, you saw Smoak continue to play at a gold glove level as well as “Mr. Toronto” Kevin Pillar make outstanding catches all summer long in centre field. The middle infield looks ready to compete as one of the top duos’ next summer and a new catcher in Danny Jensen who looks to take over the reins from the aging Russell Martin(who has a homecoming with the team that drafted him).  The biggest bright spots for the blue jays have yet to play a game for them with Vladimir Guerro Jr the son of the Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerro. Bo Bichette is another intriguing player to watch continue his growth in the system. Although Bichette may not make the team out of spring training but there’s no doubt that by the end of the season in 2019 he will be on the field for the Jays. Guerror Jr. is a lock to be the starting third baseman for the Blue Jays this year after he tore through the minors with a batting average of .381 with 20 hrs, an OBP of .431, a SLG. 631, and an OPS of .1.037. Guerro Jr. was as ready as any prospect could have been to make his Major League debut as a September call up however the Blue Jays refused to call him up and waste a year of his eligibility to see what they had in him. Selfish? Yes, however its’ a business and this decision was made with the future in mind. The Blue Jays know what they have in Vladimir so why would they waste a year of eligibility on him. However it would have been beneficial for them to call up a few other everyday players to look at what they have in the system.

                The main problem for the Blue Jays last year other than the inability to consistently make contact with the baseball would be the pitching. With a team ERA that was ranked 12th in the AL it’s hard to find anything good to say about the guys on the mound. You have to give your team a chance to win each game; however with a Team ERA that was over 4.50 you’re asking  a lot of your team to win a game. The average run differential for last season was -123 which you can’t blame solely on pitching but it was defiantly a main contributor to that number. With injuries lingering and impeding the two aces in Stroman and Sanchez for the entire 2018 season it was unfair to judge their pitching to harshly. With a weak farm system in the area of pitching the Jays are going to have to make a move or two in the upcoming season to try and enhance their rotation.

                 With an opening day rotation of Stroman, Sanchez, Shoemaaker, Borucki, and Reid-Foley the Jays are going to have to hope these rookies are hungry and ready and their veterans are able to turn the tide of a miserable 2018 if they have any chance of competing this year.

                The 2019 projected opening day roster looks like it could bring a different look to the average struggling Blue Jays. The roster in my opinion should look something like this:

C-Danny Jensen

1B-Justin Smoak

2B- Devon Travis

SS- Lourdes Guriell

3B- Vlad Guerror Jr

LF- Billy Mckinney/ Teoscar Hernandez

CF- Kevin Pillar

RF- Randal Grichuk

with bench players being Dwight Smith Jr, Brandon Drury, Rowdy Tellez and Luke Maille (only because there is literally no other option). Aside from the lack of Major league experience this doesn’t seem like an overly bad bench to have.

                Overall I think there are things to be optimistic about for 2019 with a strong start the Jays could make a run at being a dark horse and competing for the second wild card. I don’t believe that they have a chance of competing for an AL East title with the Red Sox loaded and the Yankees’ continuing to get stronger. However I do believe they could beat out Oakland, or a Cleveland team that is going through a minor rebuild this year after losing some high talent. The Blue Jays can put the north back on the map and make it a fearsome place for teams to have to come and play by performing well at the start of the year expect the crowds to return making it noisy and dangerous for the opposition. The biggest challenge in 2019 is going to be consistency you’re not looking at the jays to win 100 games but you can expect them to be more competitive than last year I’m thinking that they will finish with around 90 wins good enough for the second wild card.